Yuan China, Mata Uang Baru Emerging Markets

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Ketidakpastian dan kerentanan perekonomian global menyebabkan kekhawatiran pelaku perekonomian global. Di tengah kericuhan ini, China sebagai calon pemimpin perekonomian global menunjukkan kekuatannya dengan 'menyelinapkan' mata uang yuan sebagai alat tukar mata uang global.

Perekonomian global sedang berada di persimpangan jalan di mana banyak ekonomi berjuang untuk memacu pertumbuhan. Eropa, AS, Inggris, dan Jepang menghadapi hambatan ekonomi akibat hilangnya arah pengatur kebijakan.

Alhasil, investor kekehilangan kepercayaan pada pemerintah dengan strategi ekonominya. Stagflasi, resesi, dan ketidakstabilan global menjadi isu panas saat ini. Kenaikan suku bunga menyebabkan ekonomi negara maju memasuki gerbang resesi dengan bentuk L, yang artinya pemulihan akan terjadi dalam jangka waktu panjang antara 2-3 tahun.

Gejolak besar pasar yang telah ditahan dalam satu dekade lebih harus terakumulasi dalam rentetan krisis yang diawali pandemi. Menghadapi masalah ini, kebijakan pelonggaran keuangan (QE) harus diterapkan yang berakibat inflasi global mencapai dua digit untuk pertama kalinya dalam 40 tahun.

Keterlambatan reaksi Bank Sentral AS (Federal Reserve/The Fed), menyebabkan laju suku bunga menjadi yang tercepat sejak 1980-an. Sementara dolar AS berada di titik terkuat dalam dua tahun terakhir, negara-negara lainnya malah terimbas masalah ini.

Pertumbuhan pun bergerak ke timur dengan meningkatnya tingkat pendapatan, investasi infrastruktur yang lebih tinggi, dan terutama stabilitas ekonomi makro yang mendorong pertumbuhan di wilayah tersebut.

Melansir majalah Economist 22-28 July 2023 halaman 58, dunia membutuhkan sistem keuangan/struktur mata uang baru seperti yuan China yang dapat berjalan paralel dengan dolar AS dan membiarkan pembuat kebijakan memutuskan mode transaksi.

Pasalnya, nilai dolar cukup tinggi dalam dua dekade terkahir. Namun, sejak puncaknya pada September 2022, nilai dolar telah susut 11,5% terhadap gabungan beberapa mata uang. Bahkan, aksi jual juga baru saja terjadi dalam beberapa pekan lalu yang menekan nilai dolar anjlok 3%.

Indeks DXY atau pengukur dolar AS terhadap enam mata uang lainnya saat ini berada di nilai terendah sejak April 2022 yang menunjukkan volatilitas yang tinggi dan cerminan ketidakstabilan.

Menghadapi hal tersebut, yuan China adalah jawaban untuk membebaskan ekonomi global dari kekacauan dan ketidakstabilan dari dolar AS.

Stabilitas dan Kredibilitas sebagai Dasar Pengadospsian Yuan

Transisi pemimpin mata uang global tercermin dari persetujuan Arab Saudi menerima pembayaran minyak China dalam bentuk yuan. Pelaku ekonomi akan mencari mata uang yuan China, atas dasar stabilitas dan alternatif dari dolar AS.

Tidak hanya itu, banyak negara siap mengadopsi Yuan sebagai mata uang dan bersedia menerima CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) atau sistem pembayaran Interbank Cina yang paralel dengan SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication).

Penggunaan CIPS dilaporkan melonjak pada 58% pada periode Januari - November 2021 menjadi 2,68 juta transaksi. Nilai transaksinya mencapai 64 triliun yuan atau meroket 83%, melansir SCMP (South China Morning Post).

Alasan pelaku ekonomi memilih menggunakan yuan China atas kestabilan nilainya didasari oleh inflasi yang lebih terkendali dan kebijakan moneter yang efektif. Pemerintah China mampu menjaga keseimbangan dengan memupuk kepercayaan dan menjaga kredibilitasnya.

Pemerintah China yang menetapkan target pertumbuhan ekonominya lebih dari 5% tahun 2023 berpotensi tercapai seiring pembukaan dari pengetatan persebaran covid. Kinerja historis 10 tahun terakhir Presiden Xi Jinping telah mengeluarkan 200 juta warga China dari garis kemiskinan.

Secara keseluruhan, Cina telah mengeluarkan 850 juta orang dari kemiskinan dalam 37 tahun terakhir. Prestasi luar biasa di bawah sejarah ekonomi modern.

Bank Sentral China (People Bank of China/PBoC) telah mempertahankan kebijakan moneter yang cerdas dan membangun cadangan devisa terbesar secara global. Saat ini, China memiliki tingkat inflasi terendah di antara 3 ekonomi teratas dunia.

Timing ini akan tepat untuk China menawarkan yuan sebagai alternatif dan dapat disandingkan dengan dolar AS.

Tidak hanya Arab Saudi dengan petroyuan, pemangku kepentingan seperti lembaga G20, G7, GCC, Afrika, ASEAN, dan Multilateral harus menerima Yuan sebagai alternatif Dolar mengingat pasar membutuhkan stabilitas dan kepercayaan.

Berdasarkan hal tersebut, perbincangan pemangku kepentingan berbagai negara untuk beralih ke yuan China akan disambut positif oleh pelaku pasar. Selamat datang di yuan Cina, mata uang untuk pasar negara berkembang.

ORIGINAL ARTICLES

CHINESE YUAN---CURRENCY FOR THE EMERGING MARKETS

Global macroeconomic outlook; fragilities and uncertainties. Its like a train coming at you and you are not going to stop it by standing in its way. Yuan is fast becoming the medium of exchange in the global currency market which demonstrates the strength of Chinese economy and global leadership. Policy makers are looking to maintain macroeconomy stability to spur growth.

The global economy is standing at a crossroad whereby many economies are struggling to spur growth. Europe, USA, UK and Japan are facing economic headwinds with policy levers losing importance. Investors are losing confidence in governments with their economic strategy. Stagflation, recession, and global instability are becoming in vogue.

With central banks hiking interest rates, there is a deep concern among investors that advanced economies are heading for deep L shaped recession and would not make recovery for the next 2/3 years. The ructions in the markets are of a magnitude not seen for a generation. Global inflation is in double digits for the first time in nearly 40 years.

Having been slow to respond, the Federal Reserve is now cranking up interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, while the dollar is at its strongest for two decades, causing chaos outside America. Pivot of growth moves to the east with rising income level, higher infrastructure investment and above all macroeconomic stability driving growth in the region. According to the latest issue of Economist magazine dated July 22-28/2023. Page 58.

"Those who booked early will have scored the biggest bargains, however. The dollar is still strong by the standards of the past two decades. But since its peak in September, it has dropped by 13% against a basket of currencies. The sell-off accelerated last week when the dollar fell by 3%-a big move for a currency. The DXY index, which measures the currency against six others, is at its lowest since April 2022, just after the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates."

ADVENT OF YUAN IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS---FOR STABILITY

12 years ago i.e. Jan 7-2011, I was talking about Yuan-currency for the emerging markets in New York, audience laughed and thought I have gone berserk or off-track. Only my Nobel laureate professor, late Gary Becker from University of Chicago, Booth School reckoned my currency market insight about Yuan.

After 4 years, Yuan was included in the elite basket of currencies SDR with IMF since November 30,2015. Shan Saeed made the big call ahead of many investors and policy makers. In my opinion, world needs a new financial system / currency structure [ Chinese Yuan ] that can run parallel to Dollar and let the policy makers decide for mode of transactions . Can yuan provide stability to the global financial markets as dollar is heading for tail-end risk since FED is done with rate hikes? Yuan is the answer to get the global economy out of deep economic mess and can provide stability to the markets.

MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT: INVESTORS PREFER STABILITY AND YUAN

Investors are looking up-to Chinese Yuan for stability and to provide an alternative to US Dollar. Petrodollar is getting challenged with Petro Yuan. Saudi Arabia has indicated to accept oil payment from China in Yuan. Time for global monetary reset has arrived where confidence and stability is required for the financial markets.

Many countries are ready to adopt Yuan as currency mode and willing to accept CIPS----Chinese Interbank payment system as parallel with SWIFT. There is nothing wrong in that as countries need to diversify their payment system to more stable and balanced currency with prudent monetary policy lever. Chinese growth has maintained steady pace and inflation remains subdued due to effective monetary policy.

The Chinese government has struck a clear balance between inspiring confidence and maintaining credibility. CHINA'S government sets her economic growth target [ Over 5% ] for 2023 the year, which is quite pragmatic and achievable post covid opening. Chinese government under the leadership of President Xi Jinping has got 200 million people out of poverty in the last 10 years.

Overall, China has got 850 million out of poverty in the last 37 years. Remarkable feat under modern economic history. People Bank of China has maintained sagacious monetary policy and built the largest foreign exchange reserves globally. Presently, China has the lowest inflation rate among the top 3 economies of the world.

YUAN IS READY FOR ACCEPTABILITY. SIGNAL TO THE FINANCIAL MARKETS

Time is ripe for Chinese policy makers to offer Yuan as an alternative and parallel to US dollar. GCC [ Middle East] is ready to adopt Petroyuan for her oil payment and many emerging markets are ready to move into Yuan payment. In my opinion, Chinese yuan can provide stability and acceptability among emerging markets and policy makers can ponder about it future course.

All major stakeholders like G20, G7, GCC, Africa, ASEAN and Multilateral institutions should accept Yuan as an alternative to Dollar considering markets need stability and confidence. Joint communique from decision makers will be welcomed by the global monetary and financial markets players. Welcome to Chinese Yuan---currency for the emerging markets.